Beyond Borno: Islamic State’s Expansion into Southern Nigeria
By Jacob Zenn
Distribution A: Approved for public release
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- Although the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) has historically been deeply
rooted in northeastern Nigeria, recent patterns demonstrate that it is expanding operations
to the more economically prosperous and majority Christian south. - The most plausible explanations for ISWAP’s move south are to “outbid” the rival Sunni
Muslim Group for Preaching and Jihad (JASDJ); to follow Islamic State (IS) “core” directives
to attract attention by attacking Christians and other high-profile targets; and to divert
the Nigerian army’s attention from the north and relieve counterterrorism pressure near
ISWAP’s main bases. - Beyond these heightened risks, ISWAP’s southern expansion threatens U.S. interests in
Nigeria, Nigeria’s national security, and West African security more broadly
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