Scenario Development | Phase 1 – Analysis

Before beginning scenario development in support of an event or exercise, one must first conduct the analysis phase. Analysis is the cornerstone for leaders to identify the who, what, when, why, and how of scenario development with the training event or exercise. ​

The analysis phase is for defining the training needs (goals or objectives) and is essential for making training/instruction, and by extension the scenario as relevant as possible. Analysis provides information about what skills or knowledge need to be trained or learned, under what conditions they are performed and used as well as the standard of performance that needs to be achieved. ​

Analysis in scenario development is used to define the parameters of the training event or training exercise. The scenario development team must have a firm understanding of the event or exercise scope and parameters before beginning to shape the operational environment for the participants (training audience) of the event or exercise.​

DRAFT THE SCOPE AND PARAMETERS

• establish the primary training audience (TA) of training​
• identify training goals and expected outcomes​
• determine operational theme that frames the event and scenario​
• determine training objectives​
• define the parameters of the event or exercise​
• request exercise conditions ​
• exercise execution timeline​
• resource requirements and resource integration​
• define the operational environment​
• determine type of threat force​
• assess current state of the unit to be trained​
• determine classification of the exercise

DEFINE THE PROBLEM​

A problem is described as “the difference between our current situation and the desired outcome.” The difference can be caused by factors in the OE that must be overcome or mitigated to accomplish the associated task and achieve the desired end state. Each scenario event must have at least one scenario problem. Events or exercises with more problems have greater complexity.​

Scenario problem design is both analytical and creative. Developers are only bound by realism and relevance. The three primary sources for problems a training audience may encounter are—​

• The enemy. The most common source for developing and presenting problems to the training audience.​
• The operational environment. This is the second-most common source for event or exercise problems and challenges.​
• Friendly forces. Friendly force actions, activities, decisions, and systems can be an effective source of problems and challenges for the training audience.

DRAFT THE SCENARIO CONCEPT​

The scenario concept is a tool that assists the developer capture the narrative, graphic, timeline, and a list of scenario event objectives that comprise the event or exercise. The scenario concept explains how each event or exercise will be constructed to facilitate the development of the operational environment to meet desired training objectives.​

The SCENARIO CONCEPT consists of:​

• Scenario Concept Narrative​
• Scenario Concept Graphic​
• Scenario Event Objective

Scenario Concept Narrative:​

The scenario concept narrative is a written chronicle of the event or exercise. It depicts the training audience’s problem and expected actions. The designer uses elements of the scope and parameters to describe the desired sequence of event or exercise actions.​

Scenario Concept Graphic:​

The scenario concept graphic is a visual depiction of the event or exercise scheme of maneuver, tactical tasks, and location of scenario events. The designer uses a map of the event or exercise area to depict the desired location and sequence of scenario events and how they relate to time and space.​

Scenario Event Objectives:​

The scenario event objectives define the purpose of the event in terms of desired actions and their objectives.

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