FMSO Foreign Perspective Brief - Gaza War's Impact on the Middle East Strategic Landscape

Gaza War’s Impact on the Middle East Strategic Landscape

Lucas Winter

How might the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israeli settlements and the aftermath alter the Middle East's strategic landscape? To answer that question, the following report looks at each of the region's three de facto strategic coalitions: the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” the Turkish-led “Political Islam Coalition,” and the “Arab Normalization” Coalition, as well as how Hamas fits into the strategic map and each of the coalitions’ responses to the attacks. Prior to 7 October, the Middle East was in the midst of a new era of regional détente, in which members of the region's three de facto strategic coalitions were re-engaging and de-escalating their conflicts. This report posits three scenarios for how the conflict could alter and reshape these regional strategic trends, as well as how China and Russia might seek to benefit from them.

Distribution A: Approved for public release

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