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North Korea Previews Hypothetical Negotiating Strategy

By Anthony Holmes

North Korea Previews 08 24

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un meets U.S. President Trump in the Joint Security Area of the Demilitarized Zone (2019).


“The foreign policy of a state and personal feelings must be strictly distinguished.”


North Korea previewed its negotiating strategy in a hypothetical future Trump Administration via a recent high-level commentary in its main state-run party newspaper. The commentary both dismissed Pyongyang’s interest in negotiating with the United States and refuted former U.S. President Trump’s statement that his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un would make future negotiations easier. North Korea’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) on 23 July addressed statements made by former U.S. President Donald Trump in his speech accepting the nomination for president.1 After recounting the litany of grievances the North attaches to the United States, the commentary briefly acknowledges the “special personal relations” between former President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before dismissing it with the phrase “we do not care about [Kim Jong Un’s personal relationship or affinity to former President Trump].” The KCNA piece argues that “personal feelings” between leaders and the affairs of state must be separate. The commentary goes on to make veiled threats against the United States and states the U.S. is responsible for correcting the relationship through action.

This commentary offers clues as to how it will approach negotiations with a potential future Trump Administration. A common North Korean negotiating tactic is to portray itself as indifferent to talks and resigned to potential conflict. Pyongyang wants to be seen as “doing you a favor” by agreeing to talk and subsequently rewarded for its magnanimity. This tactic encourages the other party to negotiate with itself over concessions to get North Korea to the bargaining table and keep it there. This tactic is tried-and-true, and the referenced commentary should be interpreted in light of that pattern.

As the U.S. election approaches, North Korea is likely to issue messages from increasingly authoritative sources within the party’s hierarchy, such as Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jung or ultimately Kim Jong Un himself.  As a rule, the more authoritative the source, the less ambiguity in the North’s course of action and the more likely that the statement represents Pyongyang’s preferences or plans. Although it will be somewhat flexible on the scale, before agreeing to even sit down with the United States, Pyongyang, at minimum, is likely to demand unilateral sanctions relief and cessation of military exercises. North Korea’s ultimate negotiating position is U.S. acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state toward the ultimate objective of ending Washington’s alliance with South Korea.


Sources:

“조미대결의 초침이 멎는가는 미국의 행동여하에 달려있다 조선중앙통신사 론평 (Whether Second Hand of DPRK-U.S. Confrontation Stops or Not Depends on U.S. Act: KCNA Commentary),” Korea Central News Agency (official North Korean propaganda agency), 23 July 2024. http://kcna.kp/kp/article/q/389b4b6d4d92a66d210125543c87c1d6502d45160a9c295724db5424054b5cfc.kcmsf

Amid the full-dress presidential election race in the U.S., Trump, who has been officially confirmed as a candidate for the Republican Party, said in his speech of acceptance for candidate that “I got along with them and it is nice to get along with someone who has a lot of nuclear weapons and otherwise”, thus buoying a lingering desire for the prospects of the DPRK-U.S. relations. Even if any administration takes office in the U.S., the political climate, which is confused by the infighting of the two parties, does not change and, accordingly, we do not care about this.

It is true that Trump, when he was president, tried to reflect the special personal relations between the heads of states in the relations between states, but he did not bring about any substantial positive change.

He that puts on a public gown must put off a private person. The foreign policy of a state and personal feelings must be strictly distinguished.

For nearly 80 years since the founding of the DPRK, the U.S. has pursued the most vicious and persistent hostile policy toward it.

The DPRK has bolstered up its self-defensive capabilities to safeguard its ideology, social system, dignity and life and is fully ready for all-out confrontation with the U.S.

Due to the serious strategic mistakes of the successive administrations, the era has come when the U.S. should really worry about its security.


Notes:

1 An unsigned KCNA commentary is the lowest level of authoritative statement made in DPRK propaganda. It is designed to show an external audience that North Korea is aware of and discussing a particular issue, but either has not yet decided upon a course of action or is not yet ready to reveal it.


Image Information:

Image: North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un meets U.S. President Trump in the Joint Security Area of the Demilitarized Zone (2019).
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Trump_Meets_with_Chairman_Kim_Jong_Un_(48162628746).jpg
Attribution: Executive Office of the President of the United States, Public Domain


Distribution A: Approved for public release

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Russia Claims Victory in Vostok 2022 Exercise

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President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.

President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.


One of Russia’s large-scale, annual military exercises, Vostok-2022, took place from 1-7 September.  As with such exercises, it was widely covered in the Russian media, and as the brief excerpt from the Ministry of Defense’s TV Zvezda news network indicates, Russian forces again proved victorious. The article also stresses that Russia has not been isolated by its aggression against Ukraine, pointing out that 10 countries participated: Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, China, India, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Tajikistan. The article says that President Putin arrived at the Sergeevsky training ground to watch the final part of the exercises from a specially equipped command post.  He watched his soldiers taking lines, liberating settlements, and forcing enemy retreats.


Sources:

Maxim Petrenko, Sergey Lebedev, “Враг уничтожен: как прошли учения Восток-2022»на полигоне Сергеевский (The enemy is destroyed: how did the exercises Vostok-2022 at the Sergeevsky training ground),” TV Zvezda (Ministry of Defense news network), 6 September 2022. https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2022961429-48GVw.html

Vladimir Putin watched the maneuvers from a specially equipped command post. From there, he fully assessed the operational situation. Real-time data came even from the distant borders of the huge test site. All thanks to cameras installed in the fields with 32x magnification.

At the same time, the Chief of the General Staff had a connection with all the commanders-in-chief. The most up-to-date information was received from the training ground to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the technical characteristics of the weapons used were shown on the screen.

According to the legend of the exercises, the mock enemy “Vostochnye” attacked the “Northern” and their allies, wedging 200 kilometers into the depth of defense. The enemy was stopped, suffered losses, but retained reserves. From this point, the action begins to unfold - a grouping of troops, supported by artillery and tactical landing forces, hitting the enemy, taking lines and liberating settlements. Massed strikes by rocket troops and artillery, breaking the enemy’s reserves as well, are forcing the enemy to retreat.

A special feature of Vostok this year is the creation ofa coalition grouping of the armed forces of ten countries - Russia, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Belarus, India, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, Tajikistan. Operational groups of the defense departments of Kazakhstan, Laos, Nicaragua and Syria were also involved….…The participants of the maneuvers noted that all the goals of the exercises were fulfilled. The issues of ensuring military security in the Eastern Region have been worked out. 


Image Information:

Image: President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.
Source:  http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69288
Attribution: CCA CA 4.0 Intl

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Russian Navy Weaponizes Shipping Containers

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Shipping Containers.

Shipping Containers.


For the defense of Russian combat and auxiliary ships, an electronic warfare (EW) system is being developed. The EW system will be placed in ordinary 40-foot shipping containers.


The accompanying excerpted article from pro-Kremlin daily newspaper Izvestiya describes Russian efforts to place electronic warfare systems in standard 40-foot shipping containers.  The Russian Navy is also experimenting with other shipping container-based weapon systems involving air defense, anti-ship, and surface and underwater unmanned reconnaissance capabilities.  These shipping container-based weapon systems are not only intended to augment the capabilities of the Russian Navy’s ships, but also auxiliary ships (tugboats, transports, fuelers, etc.) that support the Russian Navy, and commercial ships if necessary.  Shipping container-based weapon systems are likely to become more important to the Russian Navy as it transitions from larger ships, such as cruisers and destroyers, which have many capabilities to smaller ships, such as frigates and corvettes, with fewer capabilities.  These shipping container-based weapon systems will permit these small vessels to expediently and cheaply add capabilities as required.


Source:

Roman Kretsul, “Шумящий патруль: российские корабли защитят

системы радиоэлектронной борьбы (The ‘noisy’ patrol: Russian ships will be protected by electronic warfare systems),” Izvestiya (pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 8 September 2022.  https://iz.ru/1392104/roman-kretcul/shumiashchii-patrul-rossiiskie-korabli-zashchitiat-sistemy-radioelektronnoi-borby

For the defense of Russian combat and auxiliary ships, an electronic warfare (EW) system is being developed. The EW system will be placed in ordinary 40-foot shipping containers. Thanks to this, the system can be easily installed on the decks of ships and vessels. Such protective "boxes" should reliably protect ships and vessels from enemy missiles and drones by way of electromagnetic interference. According to experts, as a result, this decision will significantly strengthen the protection of the country's coastal regions.

The Project 22160 ‘Vasily Bykov’ patrol ships will be the first to receive this electronic warfare systems. In the future, auxiliary vessels of the Russian fleet - tugboats, transports and others – could also acquire it…Initially, a weaker electronic warfare system was installed on Project 22160 ships, military historian Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia.“Apparently, they created a more powerful solution, of operational or strategic designation. Containers allow you to put the system on different ships,” the expert explained. “If necessary, it will be possible to build up the electronic warfare system of ship groups. They will be able to enter a given area and, in fact, completely “turn it off”. First, they will suppress drone control channels and communication systems. It will no longer be necessary to drive an electronic warfare vehicle onto a landing ship, instead they will simply put a container.

The Navy is also actively testing new container modules — with weapons and with various auxiliary equipment —including the Redut and Pantsir-M air defense systems, container modules with anti-submarine equipment, and container modules with cruise missiles. In particular, the Kalibr-NK cruise missiles. But the main possibility is that they can be adapted for the employment of underwater and surface unmanned vehicles of all types. This provides a reconnaissance capability over hundreds of kilometers…


Image Information:

Image: Shipping Containers
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Container_%E3%80%90_2205_%E3%80%91_SAKC_000411(0)---No,1_%E3%80%90_Container_pictures_taken_in_Japan_%E3%80%91.jpg
Attribution: Gazouya-japan

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Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long.

Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long.


“The Xuelong 2 is like a mobile laboratory at sea, sailing into many areas that were inaccessible in the past.”


China regards deep-sea[i] areas and polar regions as critical to its future development due to their abundant resources. President Xi Jinping even included them in his Holistic National Security Concept, which lays out domains that he regards as critical to China’s development and national security.[ii] However, both deep-sea exploration and polar regions pose significant technical challenges due to the extreme pressure or weather conditions encountered. As the following excerpts explain, China has made significant progress in overcoming these challenges.

The first excerpted article, from an early March 2023 edition of the official newspaper of China’s Ministry of Science & Technology, examines some of the equipment China has completed or is developing to explore deep sea and polar regions as part of its efforts to become a powerful maritime country. The article focuses on two technologies: icebreakers and deep-sea drilling rigs. The Xue Long 1 [GRLCUT(1] and Xue Long 2 [GRLCUT(2] icebreakers, originally based on a Ukrainian design, have improved China’s ability to explore polar regions. The article cites an acoustic engineer with experience studying polar environments, who highlighted how the Xuelong 2 had opened many previously inaccessible areas to exploration.

The latter half of the article focuses on deep sea drilling, noting the advances made with the “Manatee II” deep sea drilling rig, which is reportedly capable of operating at depths of 2,000 m or more and has set world records by drilling over 200 m into the ocean floor. A major priority for exploitation by this and future rigs is “combustible ice,” a mixture of frozen water and natural gas present on the sea floor in the deep sea. According to the article, the Manatee II has carried out exploration missions searching for combustible ice in many areas surrounding China, as well as for traditional offshore oil and gas deposits. Due to the experience from operating the Manatee, China has improved its technologies in this niche but important area, and the first of China’s next generation of deep-sea drilling ships is expected to be completed in 2024.[iii] It will reportedly be capable of drilling in waters deeper than 10,000 m.[iv] The minerals and natural gas potentially recoverable by these drills could create an economic bonanza and help China offset its reliance on imported energy.   The second article is based on an interview with Sun Bo, Party Secretary of the China Polar Research Center Polar Research Institute of China, which is part of China’s Ministry of Natural Resources. Sun Bo noted how vital China’s second icebreaker, the Xuelong 2, completed in 2019,[v] has been for China’s polar exploration efforts, highlighting that having two icebreakers now allows China to effectively support research teams at both poles at the same time. While these articles underscore how China has clearly made important strides in overcoming technical bottlenecks, it might now face legal ones. The UN recently concluded negotiations about exploiting biological and mineral resources on the high seas, which might constrain China’s activities in polar and deep-sea regions.[vi]


Sources:

He Liang [何亮], “科技扬帆,引领海洋探索挺进深蓝” (Science and Technology Set Sail, Setting a Course for Ocean Exploration into the Deepest Blue Sea), Science & Technology Daily [科技日报] (Official newspaper of PRC Ministry of Science & Technology [MOST]), 6 March 2023. http://digitalpaper.stdaily.com/http_
www.kjrb.com/kjrb/html/2023-03/06/content_550015.htm?div=0

Accelerating [China’s] development into a maritime great power and making good use of marine resources is not possible the important support of science and technology. To protect the marine ecological environment, it is necessary to strengthen basic research and fully understand the ocean’s riches; to develop marine resources, it is necessary to address the urgent requirements of improving development of technologies and equipment of scientific research for technology and equipment, and concentrate efforts to develop more “national strategic weapons.”[i]

“With the help of more and more advanced equipment, China’s polar scientific research has maritime, land and aerial capabilities.” Yin Jingwei [殷敬伟], vice president of Harbin Engineering University[ii], has long been engaged in research on polar acoustic technology….According to Yin [Xuelong 2’s] superior ice-breaking capabilities allow more scientific research facilities and supplies to be transported into the Antarctic regions. “It is like a mobile laboratory at sea, sailing into many areas that were inaccessible in the past.”

As of September 28, 2021, China has completed 12 Arctic expeditions. However, China is not an Arctic nation, and its deep-sea and polar-related research work started relatively late compared to other countries, and its support capabilities have also been limited to a certain extent. There are still many weak links and capabilities in the fields of polar science and technology research, polar equipment development, and deep-sea polar exploration. missing.

Yin Jingwei told the Science and Technology Daily reporter of that China does not yet have nuclear-powered icebreakers and underwater equipment capable of breaking ice in the polar regions, and the ability to collect maritime below the ice is also very weak. Additional efforts are needed to overcome technological and environmental hurdles to move forward.


“深耕新疆域,推动极地科考再上新台阶——海洋领域专家谈建设海洋强国” (Exploring New Frontiers and Taking Polar Scientific Research to a New Level—Maritime Experts Discuss Building a Maritime Great Power), Science & Technology Daily [科技日报] (Official newspaper of PRC Ministry of Science & Technology [MOST]), 19 January 2023 http://digitalpaper.stdaily.com/http_
www.kjrb.com/kjrb/html/2023-01/19/content_547740.htm?div=0In today’s world polar regions have become a “new frontier” for development and a focal point for global governance, a new high ground for technological competition, an area with new sea routes and a new source of resources. The China Polar Research Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources adheres to the principle of “understanding, protecting, and using” these regions proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, and is committed to providing support for China’s polar scientific research. China continues to improve its independent innovation capabilities and overall there is momentum to continue improvements. The China Polar Research Center independently built the “Xuelong 2” icebreaker with, filling a major gap in China’s capabilities required for polar scientific research and developed a way to use both the Xuelong and Xuelong two effectively in concert. This new pattern of “Double Xuelong” Polar exploration (one assigned to each polar region) has greatly improved the on-site support capabilities for China’s polar scientific investigations.


Notes:

[i] Deep-sea areas are typically defined as those below 200 meters. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 80 percent of the Earth’s ocean floor remains unmapped and unexplored. “How much of the ocean have we explored?,” NOAA [Accessed March 2023]. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/exploration.html

[ii] See: Peter Wood, “China’s Holistic Security Concept Explained,” OE Watch, 07-2018. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-singular-format/275650

 [iii] The ship was developed by China State Shipbuilding Corporation’s (CSSC) 708 Research Institute and is subordinate to the China Geological Survey Bureau. The bureau also operates ships involved in mapping the seafloor in potential sensitive areas, which has drawn the alarm of nearby nations. See for example, Naoki Inoue, Tsukasa Hadano and Jun Endo, “Chinese survey ships straying into other nation’s EEZs, data shows”, Nikkei, 31 January 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/Chinese-survey-ships-straying-into-other-nations-EEZs-data-shows

 [iv] “China’s first ultra-deepwater scientific research drilling ship achieved main hull penetration today” [我国首艘超深水科考钻探船今日实现主船体贯通], China Mining News [中国矿业报 ], 18 December 2022. https://www.cgs.gov.cn/xwl/ddyw/202212/t20221218_720062.html

 [v] See: Les Grau, “China Developing More High Latitude Equipment”, OE Watch, 11-2019. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/337636

 [vi] “UN delegates reach historic agreement on protecting marine biodiversity in international waters,” United Nations, 5 March 2023. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134157   


Notes:

 [i] This phrase, 国之重器, is frequently used to describe strategically impactful or game-changing weapons systems (ballistic missile submarines, aircraft carriers etc.,) and civilian technologies such as nuclear reactors.

 [ii] Harbin Engineering University is one of the “Seven Sons of National Defense,” which are universities that work closely with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.


Image Information:

Image: Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long.
Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Teadlased_j%C3%A4%C3%A4l.jpg
Attribution: Timo Palo, CC BY-SA 3.0


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