Finch 01 President Putin Victory Day Red Square 9 May 2023

Russian Domestic Support for Ukraine Invasion Weakens as Fighters Return Home

By Ray Finch

06/01/2023|OE Watch, Product

According to the excerpted article from official Kremlin news outlet Parliamentskaya Gazeta, during the Victory Day celebration on 9 May, President Putin declared “all of Russia has rallied to support the participants in the special military operation in Ukraine.” Despite some skepticism of such claims, indeed, most indicators suggest that Russian civil society support for the invasion has remained high over time.

President Putin, Victory Day, Red Square, 9 May 2023.

“The funny thing is that now there will be many such heroes all over the country, which is scary.”

According to the excerpted article from official Kremlin news outlet Parliamentskaya Gazeta, during the Victory Day celebration on 9 May, President Putin declared “all of Russia has rallied to support the participants in the special military operation in Ukraine.” Despite some skepticism of such claims, indeed, most indicators suggest that Russian civil society support for the invasion has remained high over time.[i] Some of this robust domestic support stems from the Kremlin’s control over the country’s major media, which has over the past 15 months asserted that Russian soldiers are protecting their country against a quasi-Ukrainian/Nazi threat (supported by the US and NATO).[ii] Alongside the 24/7 propaganda, the Kremlin has also enacted legislation that severely punishes any attempt to protest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[iii] Nevertheless, despite the Kremlin’s tight control over the narrative, there are growing indications that some Russians are beginning to question the costs behind this conflict, and possibly, their support.

The second excerpt from a regional source in Krasnodar, 93.RU, describes the brutal kidnapping and murder of two local residents by three ex-convicts. The victims’ car had broken down, and after offering to help, the criminals forced them to withdraw money from the bank and then murdered them. The source suggests that these ex-convicts may have recently gained their freedom from prison by volunteering to fight with the Wagner private military company in Ukraine. One of them had been sentenced to 16 years in prison in 2016 for a similar murder, and the article questions how he could have been released so soon. Since “discrediting” the military is now a serious offense in Russia, the author of the article couches the assertion that these ex-convicts had been released from prison by volunteering to fight in Ukraine in vague terms. However, anonymous reader comments to this article are more forthright, pointing out that once these convicts had spent six months fighting in Ukraine, they were now free to return to former criminal habits. Another reader warns that “now there will be many such heroes all over the country, which is scary.” These comments suggest that the blowback from using convicted criminals as soldiers could reduce Russian domestic support for fighting in Ukraine.

Sources:

Anton Grebennikov, “Президент: Вся страна сплотилась для поддержки участников спецоперации (President: The whole country rallied to support the participants of the special operation),” Parliamentskaya Gazeta (official Kremlin site), 9 May 2023. https://www.pnp.ru/politics/prezident-vsya-strana-splotilas-dlya-podderzhki-uchastnikov-specoperacii.html

Today, all of Russia has rallied to support the participants in the special military operation in Ukraine. The country is proud of its heroes, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized during the Victory Day Parade on Red Square…. “There is no more important thing now than your combat work. Today, the security of the country rests on you, the future of our statehood and our people depends on you, you honorably fulfill your military duty – you fight for Russia. Your families, children, friends are behind you, they are waiting for you,” RIA Novosti quotes the president….

Valeria Dulskaya, “Верили до последнего. Кто и зачем убил аниматоров на кубанской трассе (They believed until the very end. Who and why killed the animators on the Kuban highway),” 93.RU (Krasnodar News Site), 4 May 2023. https://93.ru/text/incidents/2023/05/04/72274256/

On the evening of April 28, animators Kirill Chubko and Tatyana Mostyko disappeared on the highway near the village of Berezanskaya in the Krasnodar Territory, who were driving home from work. They broke the wheel, and after some time they stopped communicating. Two days after the disappearance, Kirill’s car was found burned in the forest. More than 180,000 rubles disappeared from the accounts of the animators – they were withdrawn at night from different ATMs. Officers later arrested three suspects….

Unfortunately, that evening it became known that the animators were dead. On the morning of May 3, police reported that they had detained three suspects in the murder of Kirill and Tatiana. They were 31-year-old Demyan Kevorkyan from Krasnodar, 30-year-old Anatoly Dvoinikov from the Tikhoretsky district and 45-year-old Aram Tatosyan from the Apsheron district.

According to investigators, near the village of Berezanskaya, the alleged criminals noticed Kirill and Tatiana standing on the road on the road. The men decided to kill them in order to steal money and other valuables. They attacked the animators, took away their cards, “gaining access to the possibility of conducting banking operations on them.” Then the suspects withdrew more than 180 thousand rubles from several ATMs. Taking the money, the men killed Cyril and Tatyana. To hide the crime, they burned their car and hid the bodies, the press service of the regional Investigative Committee reported….

On May 3, the Investigative Committee announced the arrest of three suspects in the murder of Kirill and Tatyana – Demyan Kevorkyan, Anatoly Dvoinikov and Aram Tatosyan. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, all three had previous convictions…. The media suggest that they participated in the SMO, but there is no official confirmation of this.

Reader Comments:

One convict, who in 2016 was sentenced to 18 years for a similar murder, teleported out of the colony in some completely unknown way and killed the victims.

The funny thing is that now there will be many such heroes all over the country, which is scary.I don’t understand either, they gave him 18 years and he is free. Everything goes according to plan…

Notes:

[i] Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi, “How Strong is Russian public support for the invasion of Ukraine?,” Atlantic Council, 2 May 2023. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-strong-is-russian-public-support-for-the-invasion-of-ukraine/#:~:text=The%20Levada%20Center%2C%20which%20is,public%20backing%20of%20over%2070%25

[ii] For additional background on how the Kremlin has used the media to generate support for its policies, see” Ray Finch, CHAPTER 6. THE MOBILIZATION OF RUSSIAN SOCIETY, THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IN CONTEMPORARY PERSPECTIVE, 1 September 2019. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep20098.10

[iii]Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian media space had become tightly controlled, especially on matters dealing with national security. For a brief snapshot on some of these restrictive measures, see: Ray Finch, “More Restrictions on Defense Information,” OE Watch, October 2020. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/376377; “Russia Moves Forward with New Restrictions on Military Reporting,” OE Watch, November, 2021. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/397980

Image Information:

Image: President Putin, Victory Day, Red Square, 9 May 2023.
Source: http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/photos/big2x/EONAWWmXRIkYHMVEZf8vmNhVq99RsGK3.jpg
Attribution: CCA-SA 4.0 Intl

Distribution A: Approved for public release

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Finch 01 President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Vostok 2022

Russia Claims Victory in Vostok 2022 Exercise

President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.

One of Russia’s large-scale, annual military exercises, Vostok-2022, took place from 1-7 September. As with such exercises, it was widely covered in the Russian media, and as the brief excerpt from the Ministry of Defense’s TV Zvezda news network indicates, Russian forces again proved victorious. The article also stresses that Russia has not been isolated by its aggression against Ukraine, pointing out that 10 countries participated: Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, China, India, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Tajikistan. The article says that President Putin arrived at the Sergeevsky training ground to watch the final part of the exercises from a specially equipped command post. He watched his soldiers taking lines, liberating settlements, and forcing enemy retreats.

Sources:

Maxim Petrenko, Sergey Lebedev, “Враг уничтожен: как прошли учения Восток-2022»на полигоне Сергеевский (The enemy is destroyed: how did the exercises Vostok-2022 at the Sergeevsky training ground),” TV Zvezda (Ministry of Defense news network), 6 September 2022. https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2022961429-48GVw.html

Vladimir Putin watched the maneuvers from a specially equipped command post. From there, he fully assessed the operational situation. Real-time data came even from the distant borders of the huge test site. All thanks to cameras installed in the fields with 32x magnification.

At the same time, the Chief of the General Staff had a connection with all the commanders-in-chief. The most up-to-date information was received from the training ground to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the technical characteristics of the weapons used were shown on the screen.

According to the legend of the exercises, the mock enemy “Vostochnye” attacked the “Northern” and their allies, wedging 200 kilometers into the depth of defense. The enemy was stopped, suffered losses, but retained reserves. From this point, the action begins to unfold - a grouping of troops, supported by artillery and tactical landing forces, hitting the enemy, taking lines and liberating settlements. Massed strikes by rocket troops and artillery, breaking the enemy’s reserves as well, are forcing the enemy to retreat.

A special feature of Vostok this year is the creation ofa coalition grouping of the armed forces of ten countries - Russia, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Belarus, India, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, Tajikistan. Operational groups of the defense departments of Kazakhstan, Laos, Nicaragua and Syria were also involved….…The participants of the maneuvers noted that all the goals of the exercises were fulfilled. The issues of ensuring military security in the Eastern Region have been worked out.

Image Information:

Image: President Putin and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Vostok 2022, 6 September 2022.
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69288
Attribution: CCA CA 4.0 Intl

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Russian Navy Weaponizes Shipping Containers

Shipping Containers.

For the defense of Russian combat and auxiliary ships, an electronic warfare (EW) system is being developed. The EW system will be placed in ordinary 40-foot shipping containers.

The accompanying excerpted article from pro-Kremlin daily newspaper Izvestiya describes Russian efforts to place electronic warfare systems in standard 40-foot shipping containers. The Russian Navy is also experimenting with other shipping container-based weapon systems involving air defense, anti-ship, and surface and underwater unmanned reconnaissance capabilities. These shipping container-based weapon systems are not only intended to augment the capabilities of the Russian Navy’s ships, but also auxiliary ships (tugboats, transports, fuelers, etc.) that support the Russian Navy, and commercial ships if necessary. Shipping container-based weapon systems are likely to become more important to the Russian Navy as it transitions from larger ships, such as cruisers and destroyers, which have many capabilities to smaller ships, such as frigates and corvettes, with fewer capabilities. These shipping container-based weapon systems will permit these small vessels to expediently and cheaply add capabilities as required.

Source:

Roman Kretsul, “Шумящий патруль: российские корабли защитят

системы радиоэлектронной борьбы (The ‘noisy’ patrol: Russian ships will be protected by electronic warfare systems),” Izvestiya (pro-Kremlin daily newspaper), 8 September 2022. https://iz.ru/1392104/roman-kretcul/shumiashchii-patrul-rossiiskie-korabli-zashchitiat-sistemy-radioelektronnoi-borby

For the defense of Russian combat and auxiliary ships, an electronic warfare (EW) system is being developed. The EW system will be placed in ordinary 40-foot shipping containers. Thanks to this, the system can be easily installed on the decks of ships and vessels. Such protective "boxes" should reliably protect ships and vessels from enemy missiles and drones by way of electromagnetic interference. According to experts, as a result, this decision will significantly strengthen the protection of the country's coastal regions.

The Project 22160 ‘Vasily Bykov’ patrol ships will be the first to receive this electronic warfare systems. In the future, auxiliary vessels of the Russian fleet - tugboats, transports and others – could also acquire it…Initially, a weaker electronic warfare system was installed on Project 22160 ships, military historian Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia.“Apparently, they created a more powerful solution, of operational or strategic designation. Containers allow you to put the system on different ships,” the expert explained. “If necessary, it will be possible to build up the electronic warfare system of ship groups. They will be able to enter a given area and, in fact, completely “turn it off”. First, they will suppress drone control channels and communication systems. It will no longer be necessary to drive an electronic warfare vehicle onto a landing ship, instead they will simply put a container.

The Navy is also actively testing new container modules — with weapons and with various auxiliary equipment —including the Redut and Pantsir-M air defense systems, container modules with anti-submarine equipment, and container modules with cruise missiles. In particular, the Kalibr-NK cruise missiles. But the main possibility is that they can be adapted for the employment of underwater and surface unmanned vehicles of all types. This provides a reconnaissance capability over hundreds of kilometers…

Image Information:

Image: Shipping Containers
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Container_%E3%80%90_2205_%E3%80%91_SAKC_000411(0)---No,1_%E3%80%90_Container_pictures_taken_in_Japan_%E3%80%91.jpg
Attribution: Gazouya-japan

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Wood 01 Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long

China Developing Improved Equipment for Deep Sea, Polar Exploration

Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long.

“The Xuelong 2 is like a mobile laboratory at sea, sailing into many areas that were inaccessible in the past.”

China regards deep-sea[i] areas and polar regions as critical to its future development due to their abundant resources. President Xi Jinping even included them in his Holistic National Security Concept, which lays out domains that he regards as critical to China’s development and national security.[ii] However, both deep-sea exploration and polar regions pose significant technical challenges due to the extreme pressure or weather conditions encountered. As the following excerpts explain, China has made significant progress in overcoming these challenges.

The first excerpted article, from an early March 2023 edition of the official newspaper of China’s Ministry of Science & Technology, examines some of the equipment China has completed or is developing to explore deep sea and polar regions as part of its efforts to become a powerful maritime country. The article focuses on two technologies: icebreakers and deep-sea drilling rigs. The Xue Long 1 [GRLCUT(1] and Xue Long 2 [GRLCUT(2] icebreakers, originally based on a Ukrainian design, have improved China’s ability to explore polar regions. The article cites an acoustic engineer with experience studying polar environments, who highlighted how the Xuelong 2 had opened many previously inaccessible areas to exploration.

The latter half of the article focuses on deep sea drilling, noting the advances made with the “Manatee II” deep sea drilling rig, which is reportedly capable of operating at depths of 2,000 m or more and has set world records by drilling over 200 m into the ocean floor. A major priority for exploitation by this and future rigs is “combustible ice,” a mixture of frozen water and natural gas present on the sea floor in the deep sea. According to the article, the Manatee II has carried out exploration missions searching for combustible ice in many areas surrounding China, as well as for traditional offshore oil and gas deposits. Due to the experience from operating the Manatee, China has improved its technologies in this niche but important area, and the first of China’s next generation of deep-sea drilling ships is expected to be completed in 2024.[iii] It will reportedly be capable of drilling in waters deeper than 10,000 m.[iv] The minerals and natural gas potentially recoverable by these drills could create an economic bonanza and help China offset its reliance on imported energy. The second article is based on an interview with Sun Bo, Party Secretary of the China Polar Research Center Polar Research Institute of China, which is part of China’s Ministry of Natural Resources. Sun Bo noted how vital China’s second icebreaker, the Xuelong 2, completed in 2019,[v] has been for China’s polar exploration efforts, highlighting that having two icebreakers now allows China to effectively support research teams at both poles at the same time. While these articles underscore how China has clearly made important strides in overcoming technical bottlenecks, it might now face legal ones. The UN recently concluded negotiations about exploiting biological and mineral resources on the high seas, which might constrain China’s activities in polar and deep-sea regions.[vi]

Sources:

He Liang [何亮], “科技扬帆，引领海洋探索挺进深蓝” (Science and Technology Set Sail, Setting a Course for Ocean Exploration into the Deepest Blue Sea), Science & Technology Daily [科技日报] (Official newspaper of PRC Ministry of Science & Technology [MOST]), 6 March 2023. http://digitalpaper.stdaily.com/http_
www.kjrb.com/kjrb/html/2023-03/06/content_550015.htm?div=0

Accelerating [China’s] development into a maritime great power and making good use of marine resources is not possible the important support of science and technology. To protect the marine ecological environment, it is necessary to strengthen basic research and fully understand the ocean’s riches; to develop marine resources, it is necessary to address the urgent requirements of improving development of technologies and equipment of scientific research for technology and equipment, and concentrate efforts to develop more “national strategic weapons.”[i]

“With the help of more and more advanced equipment, China’s polar scientific research has maritime, land and aerial capabilities.” Yin Jingwei [殷敬伟], vice president of Harbin Engineering University[ii], has long been engaged in research on polar acoustic technology….According to Yin [Xuelong 2’s] superior ice-breaking capabilities allow more scientific research facilities and supplies to be transported into the Antarctic regions. “It is like a mobile laboratory at sea, sailing into many areas that were inaccessible in the past.”

As of September 28, 2021, China has completed 12 Arctic expeditions. However, China is not an Arctic nation, and its deep-sea and polar-related research work started relatively late compared to other countries, and its support capabilities have also been limited to a certain extent. There are still many weak links and capabilities in the fields of polar science and technology research, polar equipment development, and deep-sea polar exploration. missing.

Yin Jingwei told the Science and Technology Daily reporter of that China does not yet have nuclear-powered icebreakers and underwater equipment capable of breaking ice in the polar regions, and the ability to collect maritime below the ice is also very weak. Additional efforts are needed to overcome technological and environmental hurdles to move forward.

“深耕新疆域，推动极地科考再上新台阶——海洋领域专家谈建设海洋强国” (Exploring New Frontiers and Taking Polar Scientific Research to a New Level—Maritime Experts Discuss Building a Maritime Great Power), Science & Technology Daily [科技日报] (Official newspaper of PRC Ministry of Science & Technology [MOST]), 19 January 2023 http://digitalpaper.stdaily.com/http_
www.kjrb.com/kjrb/html/2023-01/19/content_547740.htm?div=0In today’s world polar regions have become a “new frontier” for development and a focal point for global governance, a new high ground for technological competition, an area with new sea routes and a new source of resources. The China Polar Research Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources adheres to the principle of “understanding, protecting, and using” these regions proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, and is committed to providing support for China’s polar scientific research. China continues to improve its independent innovation capabilities and overall there is momentum to continue improvements. The China Polar Research Center independently built the “Xuelong 2” icebreaker with, filling a major gap in China’s capabilities required for polar scientific research and developed a way to use both the Xuelong and Xuelong two effectively in concert. This new pattern of “Double Xuelong” Polar exploration (one assigned to each polar region) has greatly improved the on-site support capabilities for China’s polar scientific investigations.

Notes:

[i] Deep-sea areas are typically defined as those below 200 meters. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 80 percent of the Earth’s ocean floor remains unmapped and unexplored. “How much of the ocean have we explored?,” NOAA [Accessed March 2023]. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/exploration.html

[ii] See: Peter Wood, “China’s Holistic Security Concept Explained,” OE Watch, 07-2018. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-singular-format/275650

[iii] The ship was developed by China State Shipbuilding Corporation’s (CSSC) 708 Research Institute and is subordinate to the China Geological Survey Bureau. The bureau also operates ships involved in mapping the seafloor in potential sensitive areas, which has drawn the alarm of nearby nations. See for example, Naoki Inoue, Tsukasa Hadano and Jun Endo, “Chinese survey ships straying into other nation’s EEZs, data shows”, Nikkei, 31 January 2021. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/Chinese-survey-ships-straying-into-other-nations-EEZs-data-shows

[iv] “China’s first ultra-deepwater scientific research drilling ship achieved main hull penetration today” [我国首艘超深水科考钻探船今日实现主船体贯通], China Mining News [中国矿业报 ], 18 December 2022. https://www.cgs.gov.cn/xwl/ddyw/202212/t20221218_720062.html

[v] See: Les Grau, “China Developing More High Latitude Equipment”, OE Watch, 11-2019. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/m/oe-watch-articles-2-singular-format/337636

[vi] “UN delegates reach historic agreement on protecting marine biodiversity in international waters,” United Nations, 5 March 2023. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134157

Notes:

[i] This phrase, 国之重器, is frequently used to describe strategically impactful or game-changing weapons systems (ballistic missile submarines, aircraft carriers etc.,) and civilian technologies such as nuclear reactors.

[ii] Harbin Engineering University is one of the “Seven Sons of National Defense,” which are universities that work closely with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

Image Information:

Image: Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long.
Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Teadlased_j%C3%A4%C3%A4l.jpg
Attribution: Timo Palo, CC BY-SA 3.0

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