In This Running Estimate…
• Domestic support for Putin remains high, and support for Russia’s so-called “special military operation (SMO)” remains strong. However, confidence in the SMO’s success has declined slightly, and many Russians support negotiations to end the war.
• As Ukraine anticipates a long-term recovery phase, three emerging dynamics threaten to undermine national resilience: the widespread proliferation of weapons across the country since the 2022 outbreak of hostilities, societal trauma exacerbated by disrupted families and unaddressed psychological harm, and a significant brain drain of skilled young professionals seeking opportunities abroad.
• These trends could reduce Ukraine’s ability to rebuild state capacity, reintegrate veterans and war refugees into society, rebuild communities, and sustain democratic momentum, presenting new vulnerabilities exploitable by adversaries (namely Russia).
• Drawing lessons from other post-conflict zones, such as Colombia and the Balkans, can help inform Ukraine’s long-term recovery, directly connecting research findings to the mitigation of its emerging vulnerabilities.